In part II of my COVID-19 series<\/strong>, I hope to explore, share, and start a conversation on the nature and dimensions of the current seismic shifts. This means examining the complicated situation presented by the current crisis and anticipating existential threats down the road. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME<\/a>) at the University of Washington, the U.S. best-case-scenario prediction is 81,114 COVID-19 cumulative deaths by August 4, 2020, if STRICT lockdown and physical distance measures remain in place. The pandemic’s peak has yet not occurred; it will be 2,341COVID-19 deaths on the day of April 14, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n History tells us that famines, xenophobia,<\/em> and multilateral wars may occur in the wake of pandemics. Pandemics fundamentally reshaped social norms, beliefs, and values. They resulted in power shifts and wealth redistribution.<\/em> Some patterns and systems dynamics can be seen in all these events: cycles of balancing feedback loops seeking ecosystems’ equilibrium.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n History tells us that famines, xenophobia, and multilateral wars may occur in the wake of pandemics. Although they were not Armageddon or the Apocalypse, as I discussed in Part I <\/u><\/strong><\/a>of the series, such pandemics fundamentally reshaped social norms, beliefs, and values. They resulted in power shifts and wealth redistribution. A few examples are The Three Kingdoms 184-280 A.D., the Mongol Conquests 1206-1405 A.D., World Wars I and II 1914-1945, Plague of Athens 430 B.C, Antonine Plague 165-180 A.D., Plague of Justinian 541-542, The Black Death (Bubonic Plague) 1346-1353, Smallpox 1520, The Third Plague 1855, Spanish Flu: 1918-1920, and HIV\/AIDS 1981 (see figure 1). Some patterns and systems dynamics can be seen in all these events: cycles of balancing feedback loops seeking ecosystems’ equilibrium. However, we have challenges to face; our average memory range is only between 50-100 years, which means many of the lessons we learned were washed away over time. Also, we habitually have silos and linear or reductionist ways of thinking; because of these limitations, we can only see individual parts and fail to notice the whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All things appear and disappear because of the concurrence of causes and conditions. Nothing ever exists entirely alone; everything is in relation to everything else.\u2013 The Buddha<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Figure 1. <\/strong>The history of pandemics, causative agents and cumulative death toll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Note. <\/em><\/strong>Reuse permission is granted by Visual Capitalist. LePan, N. (2020, March 27). Visualizing the History of Pandemics. Retrieved March 30, 2020, from <\/em>https:\/\/www.visualcapitalist.com\/history-of-pandemics-deadliest\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Within that context, I hope to delve into dimensions of new socio-economic contract and explore paradigmatic shifts from existing business as usual (BAU). Current institutions and systems are obsolete and incapable of adapting to the ingrained cracks in our socio-economic infrastructure caused by COVID-19, or even to turn the tide or bounce back to the previous state. These cracks are challenging core aspects of humanity: causation and development in human communication, social experience, family members\u2019 interaction, aggression, and sociosexual behavior, and group structure and spatial relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Current institutions and systems are obsolete and incapable of adapting to the ingrained cracks in our socio-economic infrastructure caused by COVID-19, or even to turn the tide or bounce back to the previous state. These cracks are challenging core aspects of humanity: causation and development in human communication, social experience, family members\u2019 interaction, aggression, and sociosexual behavior, and group structure and spatial relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Current institutions and systems are obsolete and incapable of adapting to the ingrained cracks in our socio-economic infrastructure caused by COVID-19, or even to turn the tide or bounce back to the previous state. These cracks are challenging core aspects of humanity: causation and development in human communication, social experience, family members\u2019 interaction, aggression, and sociosexual behavior, and group structure and spatial relationships.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The unprecedented global spread COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, will continue to uproot life as we know it. The virus’s deep-seated consequences will unfold along economic, political, social, environmental, and technological lines, disrupting local, national, and international systems. These challenges, depicted in Figure 2 (economic dimension), will require novel strategic systems analysis tools to synthesize and combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Figure 2. COVID-19 Economic Shocks (Baldwin, 2020).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Note. <\/strong>It is reprinted from Baldwin, R. I. C. H. A. R. D. (2020, March 21). To treat COVID-19’s economic impact, start by keeping the lights on. Retrieved March 25, 2020, from <\/em>https:\/\/review.chicagobooth.edu\/economics\/2020\/article\/treat-covid-19-s-economic-impact-start-keeping-lights<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n A similarly existential threat \u2014 anthropogenic climate change \u2014 may have a role to play in the proliferation of COVID-19. A collective, united global response to the virus could help inform methods for confronting climate change and preventing future pandemics from wreaking havoc on civilization \u2014 before it’s too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases like COVID-19? The Daily Beast<\/em><\/a> brings to light connections between global warming and the mass displacement of wildlife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The expansion of our cities, the extraction of natural resources, and other byproducts of modernization and industry are detrimental to animals all over the world. Widespread wildlife habitat endangerment and loss could force animals into closer proximity, heightening the likelihood of infectious disease transmission between species. And, as habitat loss accelerates, animals won’t just be in close confinements with one another; they’ll also encroach more and more on humans. In some cultures, or under certain circumstances, wildlife may be sold and consumed or kept in cramped, unsanitary conditions. These circumstances could increase the transmission of infectious diseases, including coronaviruses, from humans to animals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The genetic analysis indicated that COVID-19 is ‘Chimera’ of two viruses: coronavirus isolated from the Malaysian Pangolin (Manis javanica) and virus RaTG13 isolated from bat R. affinis<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Note: <\/strong>Pangolin pup nudges its mother, rolled up into a protective ball, by Gregg Yan Philippine Pangolin. (2020, March 23). Retrieved from <\/em>https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Philippine_pangolin#\/media\/File:Philippine_Pangolin_Curled-up_by_Gregg_Yan.jpg<\/u><\/em><\/u><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n There are other environmental factors at play, too. In an interview with Inside Climate News<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Dr. Aaron Bernstein, the Interim Director of the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard University, recognizes a strong association between air pollution and people’s risk of contracting pneumonia \u2014 a respiratory illness like COVID-19. There isn’t yet much scientific information on ties between COVID-19 and air pollution, but it’s likely there’s a correlation between the two, Bernstein suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Plus, according to Bernstein, future disease outbreaks are likely \u2014 we live in increasingly densely populated, urbanized environments that will allow diseases to spread like wildfire. If we continue to exploit environmental resources, our built environments will only become more dense and untenable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These points all reinforce the ways in which our environment is inextricably tied to disease. The coronavirus pandemic already has, and will continue to have, devastating global consequences. However, this extraordinary event may facilitate a collective reconsideration of our unsustainable modern lifestyles, and potentially provides opportunities for vast systemic reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thinking in terms of interconnected systems<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Factors like air quality, levels of pollution, and the amount of green space surrounding us influence both our physical and mental health. A public health crisis like COVID-19 can exacerbate health inequities, disproportionately affecting marginalized, and disenfranchised populations that have already endured suboptimal environmental conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the journal article “Health Inequalities and Infectious Disease Epidemics: A Challenge for Global Health Security<\/a>,” researchers from the University of Maryland make the following argument:<\/p>\n\n\n\n “International partners, from WHO to individual countries, must grapple with the social determinants of health and existing health inequalities and extend their vision to include these factors so that disease that may start among socially disadvantaged subpopulations does not go unnoticed and spread across borders.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n As I discussed in Part One of this series blog post,<\/a> the globalized state of the world warrants strategic, systems-based approaches for combating public health and environmental crises. In some ways, globalization has impacted the spread of infectious disease; people are traveling across continents, more frequently and efficiently than ever before in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is why we need transdisciplinary tools to understand and comprehensively address the effects of COVID-19. For example, our proprietary analytical schema LongErPestleEidc<\/em><\/strong> (<\/em>Local, Organizational, National, Global, Envision, Recreate + Political, Environmental, Societal, Technological, Legal, Economic + Ethical, Industrial, Demographic and Cultural<\/em><\/strong>) <\/em>can enable a comprehensive understanding of COVID-19’s effects on the world. LongErPestleEidc<\/strong> is a comprehensive strategic system analysis tool that can provide multi-dimensional analyses, marks a dramatic shift from the traditional linear or the reductionist way of thinking, and demonstrate how interconnected these different systems are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n LongErPestleEidc<\/strong> is a comprehensive strategic system analysis tool that can provide multi-dimensional analyses, marks a dramatic shift from the traditional linear or the reductionist way of thinking, and demonstrate how interconnected these different systems are.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n For example, the virus could lead to a government bailout of the airline industry (akin to the 2009 rescue of the banks). Fundamental disruptions to the airline industry could be an opportunity for enacting green restrictions on emissions, as discussed in this article<\/a> from the New York Times.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Interestingly, the virus can draw our attention to the stark contrast between authoritarian and democratic nations and their responses to the pandemic; this article<\/a> in Bloomberg<\/em> describes how the coronavirus demonstrates vulnerabilities in political systems. The article mentions that abrupt, authoritarian, albeit somewhat controversial actions taken by China to stop the spread of COVID-19 could have saved thousands, maybe even millions, of lives. Figure 3 shows a substantial reduction in nitrogen dioxide pollution over China during the period of lockdown in late February. A similar phenomenon was observed in the E.U. You can monitor the world’s air pollution in the real-time air quality index below (Figure 4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Could this initiative forecast governments’ actions on climate change? Swift government actions could also be crucial to mitigating the effects of climate change, but these actions will differ based upon underlying political systems. As it currently stands, climate change is a highly politicized and partisan issue in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Figure 3: NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites have detected significant decreases in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over China associated with the Chinese government lockdown of Wuhan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Note: <\/em><\/strong>Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China. (2020, March 2). Retrieved March 26, 2020, from <\/em>https:\/\/www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/images\/146362\/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china<\/u><\/em><\/u><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/static.wixstatic.com\/media\/28efec_155bcb04c7cf43d4b42788057568f169~mv2.jpg\/v1\/fill\/w_740,h_1728,al_c,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01\/28efec_155bcb04c7cf43d4b42788057568f169~mv2.webp\")
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COVID-19-Climate Change Linkages<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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